Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.90 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.90 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $169.98 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 48¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $169.98 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 48¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 9¢ spread. The 299.9% implied yield on the Yes side appears artificially inflated due to thin liquidity, while the 564% realized volatility and recent 13¢ to 32¢ price swing (7-day movement) suggest high uncertainty around whether Florida gas will exceed $4.90 in 259 days. With a neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.4/h), this market lacks conviction and would benefit from deeper liquidity before making directional bets.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than $4.90 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-4.90 yes 100