Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.10 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.10 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $56 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 85¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied yield of 531% for Yes positions.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $56 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 85¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied yield of 531% for Yes positions. The massive 10¢ spread and dramatic 7-day price movement from 10¢ to 21¢ suggest thin order books and possible mispricing, particularly given the asymmetric risk-adjusted yield of 266% favoring the No side. With 259 days to expiry and Florida gas prices needing to average above $5.10 (roughly $1.50 above current levels), the market's heavy Yes skew warrants skepticism given the liquidity constraints and the substantial price movement volatility.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than $5.10 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-5.10 yes 100