Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.90 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.90 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The Yes contract has collapsed from 34¢ to 8¢ over seven days, now pricing in only a 24% probability that Florida gas averages above $5.90 by year-end 2026, yet the implied yield on the Yes side remains extraordinarily high at 1623.5% due to the depressed price.
Analysis
The Yes contract has collapsed from 34¢ to 8¢ over seven days, now pricing in only a 24% probability that Florida gas averages above $5.90 by year-end 2026, yet the implied yield on the Yes side remains extraordinarily high at 1623.5% due to the depressed price. With zero 24-hour volume and just $989.51 open interest despite 259 days to expiration, this market shows severe illiquidity that likely explains both the extreme yield calculation and the sharp recent price movement, making the current pricing potentially unreliable as a probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than $5.90 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-5.90 yes 100