Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The "No" position is heavily favored at 37¢, implying only a 37% probability that average gas prices exceed $4.80 by year-end 2026, though the asymmetric implied yields (240.3% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The "No" position is heavily favored at 37¢, implying only a 37% probability that average gas prices exceed $4.80 by year-end 2026, though the asymmetric implied yields (240.3% for Yes vs. 82.9% for No) suggest the market may be underpricing upside risk. With zero 24-hour volume and just $1,505.40 in open interest against a wide 10¢ spread, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 240% yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given execution risk. The market has drifted down 2¢ over seven days and sits in neutral regime territory, but with 259 days to expiry and current gas prices well below $4.80, the resolution hinges heavily on inflation and energy market dynamics over the next nine months.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-4.80 yes 100