Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 41% probability of gas exceeding $5.40 by end-2026, yet the Yes contract offers an extreme 1141.8% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or deep skepticism about sustained high prices.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 41% probability of gas exceeding $5.40 by end-2026, yet the Yes contract offers an extreme 1141.8% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or deep skepticism about sustained high prices. With zero 24-hour volume and just $698 open interest, liquidity is critically thin, making the 9¢ spread and cliff risk index of 8 concerning for actual execution. The recent price decline from 13¢ to 11¢ over seven days indicates weakening conviction in the high-gas scenario despite the outsized yield, pointing to potential overvaluation of the Yes side.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-5.40 yes 100