Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The Yes contract has surged 400% over seven days to 10¢, implying only a 10% probability that New York gas averages above $5.60 by year-end 2026, yet the asymmetric implied yield of 1,270% on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity with just $1,651 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
The Yes contract has surged 400% over seven days to 10¢, implying only a 10% probability that New York gas averages above $5.60 by year-end 2026, yet the asymmetric implied yield of 1,270% on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity with just $1,651 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 4¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicate thin order books and potential execution difficulty, making this market unreliable for serious position-taking despite the headline yield figures.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-5.60 yes 100