Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The "Yes" contract is priced at an extreme discount (15¢) despite offering an 799.9% implied yield, suggesting strong market skepticism that U.S.
Analysis
The "Yes" contract is priced at an extreme discount (15¢) despite offering an 799.9% implied yield, suggesting strong market skepticism that U.S. gas prices will average above $4.80 by end-2026—a level last sustained during 2022's energy crisis. With only $637 in open interest and a 9¢ spread on a 259-day runway, liquidity is thin, making the outsized yield partially illusory; the neutral regime score (0.409) and modest 7-day price stability (14¢→15¢) indicate no imminent catalyst is pricing in a spike. The 6 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution on late-stage volatility near resolution.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly greater than $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
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sf trade KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.80 yes 100