Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 1034.9% annualized return versus just 19.2% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of the bullish outcome despite current 50¢ pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 1034.9% annualized return versus just 19.2% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of the bullish outcome despite current 50¢ pricing. The market has experienced notable downward price movement over seven days (15¢ to 12¢), yet maintains minimal liquidity with only $741.25 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, indicating thin trading and potential difficulty executing larger positions. With 259 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 7, the neutral regime and wide 6¢ spread suggest uncertainty around whether Texas gas averages will exceed $5.00, though the asymmetric yields indicate sophisticated traders may view sub-$5 outcomes as undervalued.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly greater than $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-5.00 yes 100