Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The 30% probability reflects substantial skepticism that US gas prices will dip below $3.20 at any point over the next 258 days, despite current prices typically ranging below that threshold—suggesting the market is pricing in sustained elevated fuel costs through end-2026.
Analysis
The 30% probability reflects substantial skepticism that US gas prices will dip below $3.20 at any point over the next 258 days, despite current prices typically ranging below that threshold—suggesting the market is pricing in sustained elevated fuel costs through end-2026. The extreme 741.9% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $403.87 open interest indicates this is an illiquid, speculative position where the wide 10¢ spread may not reflect true consensus. The sharp 7-day rally from 2¢ to 16¢ (an 8x move) signals recent conviction shift, though the low Cliff Risk Index of 5 suggests the binary outcome isn't viewed as particularly volatile or uncertain near resolution.
Resolution rules
If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.20 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.20 yes 100