Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $238 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $238 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The dramatic 7-day price movement from 2¢ to 44¢ suggests recent volatility or a data anomaly, though the current 8¢ level implies only an 8% probability of sub-$3.60 gas by end-2026—a notably bearish view given current price levels around $2.50-$3.00. The 179.9% implied yield on the Yes side and wide 9¢ spread reflect the illiquidity and uncertainty, making this a speculative rather than liquid market.
Resolution rules
If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.60 yes 100