Will EVOLUTION by Sabrina Carpenter have above 1,791,687 Streams on Luminate from April 17 - April 23?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will EVOLUTION by Sabrina Carpenter have above 1,791,687 Streams on Luminate from April 17 - April 23?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing April 25, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal rather than a reflection of genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal rather than a reflection of genuine market consensus. The 96¢ spread is exceptionally wide, indicating virtually no active traders are willing to take either side at any price point. Given that Sabrina Carpenter is a major artist with consistent streaming performance and the threshold of 1.79M streams over a full week appears modest for her typical output, the true probability is likely substantially higher than the quoted 0%, suggesting this market may be mispriced due to abandonment rather than fundamental analysis.
Resolution rules
If EVOLUTION has above 1,791,687 Worldwide Streams during the April 17 - April 23, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALBUMSTREAMSU-EVOLSCARP26APR23-1.8M yes 100