Will Lover by Taylor Swift have above 36,707,329 Streams on Luminate from April 17 - April 23?
Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will Lover by Taylor Swift have above 36,707,329 Streams on Luminate from April 17 - April 23?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Kalshi, closing April 25, 2026. This market is essentially dead with zero open interest, zero volume, and a 96-cent spread indicating no active traders are pricing this contract.
Analysis
This market is essentially dead with zero open interest, zero volume, and a 96-cent spread indicating no active traders are pricing this contract. The 0% implied probability at 2 cents suggests minimal conviction either direction, likely reflecting insufficient liquidity rather than genuine bearish sentiment on Lover's streaming performance. With expiration on April 25, 2026 (approximately 2 years out), the extreme illiquidity makes this an unreliable venue for prediction; the threshold of 36.7 million streams over a single tracking week is achievable for a Taylor Swift catalog track, but the market's dormancy prevents meaningful analysis of true market expectations.
Resolution rules
If Lover has above 36,707,329 Worldwide Streams during the April 17 - April 23, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALBUMSTREAMSU-LOVERSWIFT26APR23-36.7M yes 100