What is the current probability for "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Director?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 23, 2027. 396 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Director?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1749.3% and 4.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Director?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Director?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Director?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing May 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 2939% implied yield on the Yes side.

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13¢

Bid/Ask 4/14¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $30·OI $30·Closes May 23, 2027·396d remaining

KXANIMEBDIR-26-KEN

7-day price6 snapshots · 2 regime

5¢4¢ current

Apr 91¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 2939% implied yield on the Yes side. The 10¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and the modest 7-day movement (2¢ to 3¢) suggests minimal trading activity rather than genuine price discovery. With 402 days until expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 32, this appears to be a nascent market awaiting liquidity, though the specific resolution criteria (naming two directors) is notably restrictive and may explain the depressed pricing.

Resolution rules

If Kenji Nagasaki, Naomi Nakayama has won Best Director at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1749.3%

IY (No) 4.8%

Adj IY 875%

CRI 19

Overround -0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1749.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	875%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 3:21:56 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 3:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXANIMEBDIR-26-KEN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →