What is the current probability for "Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2336.8% and 9.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $235 open interest, making the 1¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 6/10¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $241.54·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

KXARREST-27JAN-BJOH

7-day price5 snapshots · 7 regime

6¢6¢ current

Apr 125¢Apr 29

Analysis

14d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $235 open interest, making the 1¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The massive 2676% implied yield on the Yes side and 8¢ spread reflect the thin market conditions rather than genuine conviction that Chicago's mayor will be arrested within 259 days. The recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days suggests modest skepticism, though the negligible trading activity limits the significance of this movement.

Resolution rules

If Brandon Johnson is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2336.8%

IY (No) 9.5%

Adj IY 389%

CRI 16

Overround 2.8%

LAS 0.67

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2336.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	389%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.67	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:02:58 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 11:53:25 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXARREST-27JAN-BJOH yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →