Will John Kerry be arrested before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will John Kerry be arrested before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 3¢ spread and modest $3,047 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction either direction.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 3¢ spread and modest $3,047 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction either direction. The 2,675% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing typical of low-liquidity binary markets rather than genuine arrest probability, while the 5¢ price has remained completely flat over seven days. With 259 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this contract carries meaningful tail risk and should be approached cautiously given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If John Kerry is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARREST-27JAN-JKER yes 100