Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 5¢ spread and modest $3,761 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction either direction.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 5¢ spread and modest $3,761 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction either direction. The 1¢ price implies a 1% probability of arrest, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1,871% implied yield—a classic hallmark of thin, low-conviction markets where small positions can distort pricing. With 259 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1,215%, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with minimal information flow (0.7 arrivals per hour) rather than a market efficiently pricing genuine arrest risk.
Resolution rules
If Loretta Lynch is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARREST-27JAN-LLYN yes 100