Will the brent crude oil close price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and statistical distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with only $73 in 24-hour volume against $571 open interest and a massive 39¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and statistical distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with only $73 in 24-hour volume against $571 open interest and a massive 39¢ spread. The implied yield of 100,000% on the Yes side is nonsensical given the 5-day timeframe and reflects the market's inability to price rationally at such thin liquidity levels. The realized volatility of 49,492% and cliff risk index of 24 suggest this contract is essentially illiquid noise rather than a reliable probability estimate, making the 24¢ price unreliable for serious forecasting.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 103.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T103.99 yes 100