What is the current probability for "Leipzig vs Union Berlin Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 8, 2026. 17 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Leipzig vs Union Berlin Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 19680.1% and 243.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Leipzig vs Union Berlin Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Leipzig vs Union Berlin Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Leipzig vs Union Berlin Winner?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This market shows severe illiquidity issues with zero volume and open interest despite a 21-day window to the May 8 expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in this Leipzig-Union Berlin matchup.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 10/11¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $101.12·OI $1,799.86·Closes May 8, 2026·17d remaining

KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26APR24RBLUNI-UNI

7-day price17 snapshots · 26 regime

11¢10¢ current

Apr 174¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows severe illiquidity issues with zero volume and open interest despite a 21-day window to the May 8 expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in this Leipzig-Union Berlin matchup. The 0¢ Yes price paired with an astronomical 17,827% implied yield on the Yes side indicates either a pricing error or extreme confidence in a Union Berlin loss, though the maximal 10 Cliff Risk Index warns of potential resolution complications. The recent price movement from 4¢ to 9¢ over seven days shows some volatility, but without any trading activity, this likely reflects stale quotes rather than genuine market conviction.

Resolution rules

If Union Berlin wins the Leipzig vs Union Berlin professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 19680.1%

IY (No) 243.0%

Adj IY 9840%

CRI 9

Overround -0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	19680.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	243.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9840%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 2:00:51 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26APR24RBLUNI-UNI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →