What is the current probability for "Dortmund vs Freiburg Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 10, 2026. 18 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Dortmund vs Freiburg Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 9161.3% and 441.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Dortmund vs Freiburg Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Dortmund vs Freiburg Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Dortmund vs Freiburg Winner?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026.

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20¢

Bid/Ask 18/20¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $13.46·OI $17.46·Closes May 10, 2026·18d remaining

KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26APR26BVBSCF-TIE

7-day price48 snapshots · 1 regime

19¢18¢ current

Apr 194¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

If Tie wins the Dortmund vs Freiburg professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9161.3%

IY (No) 441.4%

Adj IY 9161%

CRI 5

RV 466%

VR 0.48

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9161.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	441.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9161%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	466%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.48	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 11:57:51 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 11:53:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26APR26BVBSCF-TIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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