Will Ro Khanna place first in the 2026 CA-17 primary?

Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will Ro Khanna place first in the 2026 CA-17 primary?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 17¢ spread.

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88¢
Bid/Ask 88/89¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $1,551·Closes Nov 3, 2027·558d remaining
KXCAPRIMARY-17FIRST26-RKHA
7-day price13 snapshots · 15 regime
88¢88¢ current
Apr 2175¢Apr 23

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 17¢ spread. The 158.8% implied yield on the "No" side is extraordinarily high and suggests severe mispricing—such yields typically indicate either a broken market or that traders are demanding compensation for execution risk rather than fundamental pessimism about Khanna's chances. With 563 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of just 2, there's ample time for the market to develop liquidity, but current conditions make this essentially non-tradeable.

Resolution rules

If Ro Khanna wins the the 2026 CA-17 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (No) 480.0%
Adj IY 237%
CRI 7
Overround 0.1%
LAS 0.01
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)8.9%
IY (No)480.0%
Adj IY237%
CRI7
Overround0.1%
LAS0.01

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/24/2026, 10:59:27 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXCAPRIMARY-17FIRST26-RKHA yes 100

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