Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing December 9, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $8 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 52¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $8 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 52¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread. The "No" side offers an unusually high 222% implied yield compared to 107.2% for "Yes," suggesting significant mispricing or that traders expect rate cuts rather than a hold by December 2026. The dramatic 42¢ price surge over seven days warrants caution, as such moves in thin markets often reflect minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability shifts.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Hike of 0bps at its Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-H0 yes 100