Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting
Leader sits at 94% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Maintains rate
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
Maintains rate
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 9, 2026
164 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bank of Canada
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-C25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Hike >25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-H26
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-H25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-H0
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-C25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-C25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-H0
Analysis
This contract tracks whether the Bank of Canada will hold its policy rate unchanged at their April 2026 meeting. The 39% probability reflects market expectation that a rate change is more likely than no change. The current level is driven by two main factors: recent inflation data and the broader direction of Canadian monetary policy relative to the Federal Reserve. The April meeting itself will resolve this contract when the Bank of Canada announces its decision and accompanying statement on rates. Markets currently price similar contracts for June and beyond at much higher probabilities (92%), suggesting traders expect rate stability later this year but see greater uncertainty for the April decision specifically.
- ›April 2026 BoC meeting probability of 39% for no change is substantially lower than June 2026 market pricing at 92%, indicating current market consensus expects action in April
- ›Related Federal Reserve contracts show 94% pricing for 0bps in June and 91% in July, suggesting North American central banks face different near-term pressures
- ›The steep decline in probability from April (39%) to June (92%) to December (3%) indicates markets expect rate cuts beginning mid-year, not a frozen policy rate
- ›Current pricing reflects available inflation data and economic conditions as of early May 2026; any significant Canadian economic data release before the April meeting would shift probabilities
- ›The contract resolves upon the Bank of Canada's official rate announcement and decision statement at their scheduled April 2026 meeting
What moved the line
- Jun 27Maintains rate↓13pp93→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Cut 25bps↓11pp16→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Maintains rate↑6pp53→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Maintains rate↑6pp65→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Maintains rate↑5pp60→65¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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