Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting
Leader sits at 85% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Maintains rate
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Maintains rate
Spread
58pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 9, 2026
110 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bank of Canada
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-H25
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-H0
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps
KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-C25
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 78% probability that the Bank of Canada will maintain its policy rate unchanged at its September 2026 meeting, reflecting expectations of ongoing monetary easing. This high probability reflects broader expectations that the central bank will continue cutting rates rather than hold steady. The key driver is the economic outlook: traders are currently pricing in larger cuts (over 25bps) at 8 cents per dollar, versus only 79 cents for a hold, suggesting the market believes conditions will warrant further loosening. The critical catalyst is economic data releases between now and September 2026—particularly inflation trends, employment figures, and GDP growth—which will determine whether the BoC maintains its current path or adjusts its stance. By December 2026, markets show even lower probability of a hold (5 cents), indicating an expectation of cumulative rate cuts through the fall.
- ›September 2026 holds priced at 79¢ while cuts >25bps trade at only 8¢, indicating asymmetric market conviction toward easing rather than stability
- ›December 2026 hold contracts trade at 5¢, showing markets expect the BoC will have moved toward cuts by year-end, not maintained a pause
- ›Current inflation data and economic growth trends through Q3 2026 will be the primary inputs determining whether the BoC maintains, cuts, or hikes at the September decision
- ›The market is actively pricing multiple consecutive cutting scenarios (25bps cuts appear in both September and December outcomes), not a prolonged hold pattern
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in the larger-cut contracts ($133 daily volume) versus the hold scenario ($7 daily volume), suggesting professional positioning favors easing
What moved the line
- Aug 17Maintains rate↓13pp41→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Maintains rate↓4pp89→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 15Maintains rate↑3pp84→87¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Maintains rate↓3pp83→80¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Hike 25bps↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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