Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,795 open interest, making the 3,537% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,795 open interest, making the 3,537% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 7¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 12¢ price, and the cliff risk index of 13 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or potential ambiguity in what constitutes a coach "leaving." With 137 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the 12% probability appears to reflect genuine uncertainty about Boston College's coaching situation rather than mispricing, though the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether this market can actually be profitably traded at quoted prices.
Resolution rules
If the head coach of the Boston College College Football team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOACHOUTNCAAFB-1-26-BC yes 100