Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This illiquid micro-market on Middle Tennessee's head coach departure shows extreme pricing distortion, with the Yes side offering a stunning 1064.8% implied yield against just $8 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market on Middle Tennessee's head coach departure shows extreme pricing distortion, with the Yes side offering a stunning 1064.8% implied yield against just $8 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 20¢ price represents a dramatic 1900% seven-day surge from 1¢, suggesting either new information about the coach or a single speculative bet moving the thin order book. With 137 days to expiry and a 4 Cliff Risk Index, this market is vulnerable to sudden resolution events, making the high yield potentially illusory given the execution risk on such minimal liquidity.
Resolution rules
If the head coach of the Middle Tennessee College Football team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOACHOUTNCAAFB-1-26-MTU yes 100