Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $11,136 open interest and an unusually wide 8¢ spread, suggesting the 3¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $11,136 open interest and an unusually wide 8¢ spread, suggesting the 3¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical 8605.6% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or reflects genuine uncertainty about Texas football coaching changes within the next 137 days, though the recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ suggests weakening conviction in a near-term departure. With a Cliff Risk Index of 32 and expiry coinciding exactly with the resolution date, this market carries significant execution risk and should be approached cautiously given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If the head coach of the Texas College Football team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOACHOUTNCAAFB-1-26-TEX yes 100