Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8,737 open interest, and the 8¢ spread suggests difficulty executing trades at posted prices.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8,737 open interest, and the 8¢ spread suggests difficulty executing trades at posted prices. The 16¢ price implies only a 16% chance of North Carolina's head coach departing before September 2026, yet the Yes side offers an astronomical 3535% annualized yield, indicating either severe mispricing or that traders view the probability as substantially lower than the current quote. The recent downward price movement from 9¢ to 7¢ over seven days, combined with the high cliff risk index of 13 and 137 days to expiry, suggests this market may be vulnerable to sharp repricing if any coaching news emerges.
Resolution rules
If the head coach of the North Carolina College Football team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOACHOUTNCAAFB-1-26-UNC yes 100