Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Which College Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread. The 1134% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated by the minimal position size and suggests minimal conviction from traders. With 137 days to expiry and a moderate 4 cliff risk index, the market appears underpriced relative to typical mid-season coaching turnover rates, but the lack of trading activity means this could be a mispriced edge with limited ability to execute.
Resolution rules
If the head coach of the West Virginia College Football team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOACHOUTNCAAFB-1-26-WVU yes 100