Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in April 2026?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $70 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 90¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $70 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 90¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread. The No side's astronomical 50,239% implied yield signals severe mispricing—likely a result of minimal trading activity rather than genuine market conviction that core CPI will stay at or below 2.2%. With just 23 days to expiry and the price having surged from 62¢ to 98¢ over seven days, this appears to be a thin market where small trades can create outsized price movements, warranting caution before treating the 90% probability as meaningful.
Resolution rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.2 yes 100