Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.0%
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above 2.8%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$10K
liquid
Closes
Sep 11, 2026
50 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.0% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 2.0%
KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.0
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.3%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T3.3
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 2.8%
KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.8
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.4%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T3.4
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.2%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T3.2
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.0%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T3.0
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.1%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.1
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.1%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T3.1
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.6%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.6
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in August 2026?: Above 2.4%
KXCPICOREYOY-26AUG-T2.4
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.4%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.4
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.3%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.3
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.2%
KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T3.2
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.4%
KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T3.4
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 2.7%
KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.7
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.3%
KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T3.3
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.5
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in August 2026?: Above 2.1%
KXCPICOREYOY-26AUG-T2.1
Analysis
This market estimates a 95% probability that core CPI inflation will exceed 2.2% for the year ending November 2026. The high probability reflects recent inflation readings that have remained sticky above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, even as headline inflation has moderated. The market implies traders expect inflation to persist above this threshold through mid-2026, driven by factors like wage growth, shelter costs, and service-sector pricing. Key uncertainty centers on whether the Fed will cut rates further and how consumer demand evolves. The upcoming July 2026 CPI report—due mid-August—will be critical, as it provides the first hard data directly affecting contract resolution. Traders are pricing in roughly 80% confidence for above 2.8% inflation through summer, but only 10% confidence for sustained elevation above 2.8% into August, suggesting expectations for some disinflation by then.
- ›Core CPI for the 12 months ending May 2026 will be officially reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in mid-June 2026
- ›Current market pricing shows declining confidence in higher inflation thresholds over time (95% for 2.2%, 75% for 2.5%, 60% for 2.6%), indicating expected disinflation trajectory
- ›Shelter and owner's equivalent rent represent roughly 40% of core CPI weighting and remain sensitive to mortgage rates and housing supply dynamics
- ›The Federal Reserve's policy path and unemployment rate between now and May 2026 will materially affect wage growth and service-sector inflation
- ›Contract volumes are concentrated at the 2.2% threshold ($24 24h volume), while higher thresholds show minimal trading liquidity, suggesting potential pricing uncertainty above that level
What moved the line
- Jul 16Above 2.4%↓84pp99→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Above 2.1%↓18pp96→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Above 2.1%↑18pp78→96¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Above 2.4%↑18pp29→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Above 2.3%↑12pp61→73¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 31% · 0d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 21% · 0d
- Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.4%last 74% · 8d
- Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 22d
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 22d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.