Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.7%
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
63¢
Above 2.2%
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Aug 12, 2026
67 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 2.9%
KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.9
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 2.8%
KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.8
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.0%
KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T3.0
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 3.1%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T3.1
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 2.7%
KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.7
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.3%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T3.3
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 2.9%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.9
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.2%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T3.2
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.1%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T3.1
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.9%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.9
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.8%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.8
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.7%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.7
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.6%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.6
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.2%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T2.2
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.0%
KXCPICOREYOY-26JUL-T3.0
Analysis
This market is pricing a 95% likelihood that core inflation for the 12-month period ending May 2026 will exceed 3.0% annually. Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy prices, making it a closely watched measure of underlying inflation trends. The high probability reflects market confidence that inflation will remain elevated despite Federal Reserve efforts to control it. Key drivers include recent monthly inflation readings, wage growth persistence, and expectations for monetary policy through mid-2026. The main catalyst for resolution will be the May 2026 CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes data roughly mid-month. Markets are pricing lower probability for higher thresholds (2.8% and above command only 30 cents), suggesting consensus expects core inflation in the 3.0-3.5% range rather than substantially higher.
- ›Recent 12-month core CPI readings as of April 2026, which form the baseline for the May year-over-year comparison
- ›Monthly core inflation momentum through May 2026—whether new inflation is accelerating, stable, or decelerating relative to year-ago levels
- ›Federal Reserve policy stance and rate decisions through May 2026, which directly influence inflation expectations and real economic activity
- ›Wage growth and labor market tightness, which feed into pricing power and core service inflation
- ›The May 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release date (typically mid-June), which will definitively resolve the contract
What moved the line
- Jun 1Above 2.7%↓71pp76→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Above 3.1%↑32pp2→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 2.9%↓24pp33→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Above 3.1%↑18pp34→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Above 3.1%↓16pp52→36¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 3d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 6d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 7d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 7d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.7%last 89% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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