Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in May 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (7%) for core CPI exceeding 3.5% year-over-year by May 2026, yet the asymmetric implied yields (9,182% for Yes vs. 52% for No) and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. With only $558 in open interest and a 5¢ spread, the market lacks depth, and the sharp 40% price increase over seven days (5¢ to 7¢) may reflect thin-book dynamics rather than fundamental shifts in inflation expectations. Given that core CPI currently sits near 3.2-3.3% and the resolution date is 53 days away, the market appears to be pricing in significant disinflation, though the extreme yield on the Yes side and minimal trading activity warrant skepticism about whether this price reflects true market consensus.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade