Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 33¢ price unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 33¢ price unreliable. The implied yield of 24,785% on the Yes side is nonsensical given the 13-day time horizon and reflects the micro-liquidity environment rather than genuine market expectations. The sharp 7-day price decline from 21¢ to 10¢ combined with a high cliff risk index of 9 suggests this contract may be illiquid noise rather than a meaningful signal on German Q1 2026 GDP growth prospects.
Resolution rules
If Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.2 yes 100