Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.6%
Leader sits at 95% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.5%
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Above -0.4%
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
34 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T-0.1
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.8
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.6
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.5
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.4
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.3
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.2
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.1
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.0
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.5%?: Above -0.5%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T-0.5
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T-0.4
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T-0.3
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T-0.2
Analysis
This probability estimates whether Germany's economy will contract by less than 0.6% on a quarter-over-quarter basis in Q1 2026. The 28% probability reflects skepticism that Germany will avoid sharper contraction, particularly given recent eurozone weakness. The main factors shaping this assessment are Germany's industrial activity trends, consumer spending patterns, and export demand in early 2026. The German statistical office (Destatis) will release the preliminary Q1 2026 GDP flash estimate on May 15, 2026, which will definitively resolve this question. Until then, market expectations hinge on incoming PMI data, retail sales reports, and signals about manufacturing orders that typically precede the official release. Traders are pricing in roughly a 72% probability of contraction exceeding 0.6%, suggesting consensus expectations lean toward meaningful economic weakness in the quarter.
- ›Germany's manufacturing PMI and industrial production data for January-March 2026 will directly influence whether contraction stays within or exceeds the -0.6% threshold
- ›Consumer spending and retail sales momentum in Q1 2026 will indicate domestic demand resilience, with weakness increasing probability of steeper contraction
- ›Export demand and orders from trading partners, particularly auto sector shipments, will affect overall output growth or contraction
- ›The eurozone's broader economic trajectory, indicated by parallel GDP estimates for France and the euro area, provides context for Germany-specific outcomes
- ›Destatis preliminary flash estimate release on May 15, 2026 will provide definitive resolution, making all current pricing contingent on that data point
What moved the line
- Jun 19Above 0.3%↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%last 92% · 0d
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%last 62% · 0d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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