Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.6%
Leader sits at 95% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -0.5%
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above -0.1%
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$40
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T-0.1
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.5%?: Above -0.5%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T-0.5
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.6
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.5
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.4
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.3
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.2
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T0.0
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T-0.4
Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3%
KXDEGDPQOQF-26JUL30-T-0.3
Analysis
This market reflects an expectation that Germany's Q2 2026 GDP growth will exceed -0.5% quarter-over-quarter, with 95% confidence assigned to that outcome. The probability is elevated because German economic data has historically stabilized after downturns and forecasters generally project modest recovery through mid-2026, though tail risks including energy price shocks or eurozone stress remain. The resolution of uncertainty depends on actual Q2 GDP flash figures, scheduled for release in early August 2026. Contract pricing shows market confidence compressed at the -0.2% to -0.1% band, suggesting traders expect growth near flat rather than strongly positive.
- ›Q2 2026 German GDP flash estimate release date (typically first week of August 2026) is the fixed resolution point
- ›Recent quarterly trend data from Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 will anchor expectations; consecutive quarters below -0.5% would lower this probability materially
- ›Energy commodity prices and eurozone policy signals through June 2026 will influence forecaster revisions in the weeks before publication
- ›Manufacturing PMI and industrial production indices for May–June 2026 serve as leading indicators traders monitor pre-release
- ›Historical mean-reversion patterns in German GDP growth suggest sharp declines are often followed by partial recovery, supporting the high probability floor
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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