What is the current probability for "Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 6, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 11472.2% and 552.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Winner?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026.

████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

20¢

Bid/Ask 18/20¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $282.46·OI $283.46·Closes May 6, 2026·14d remaining

KXDFBPOKALGAME-26APR22LEVBMU-TIE

7-day price78 snapshots · 1 regime

18¢18¢ current

Apr 194¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If Tie wins the Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich professional DFB Pokal soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 11472.2%

IY (No) 552.8%

Adj IY 11472%

CRI 5

RV 402%

VR 0.36

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	11472.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	552.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11472%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	402%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.36	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:05:23 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:53:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXDFBPOKALGAME-26APR22LEVBMU-TIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions