Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+21pp
47h ago
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
Aug 25, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner” vs “Rostock vs Stuttgart Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner
St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner?: Reg Time: Frankfurt
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG21STTSGE-SGE
St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner?: Reg Time: Tie
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG21STTSGE-TIE
St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner?: Reg Time: St. Tonis
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG21STTSGE-STT
Cluster 2
Rostock vs Stuttgart Winner
Cluster 3
Munster vs Karlsruhe Winner
Cluster 4
Bahlinger SC vs Magdeburg Winner
Cluster 5
Mannheim vs Kaiserslautern Winner
Cluster 6
Hemelingen vs Hannover Winner
Hemelingen vs Hannover Winner?: Reg Time: Hannover
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG22HEMH96-H96
Cluster 7
Krieschow vs Mainz Winner
Krieschow vs Mainz Winner?: Reg Time: Mainz
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG23VFBM05-M05
Cluster 8
Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn Winner
Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn Winner?: Reg Time: Paderborn
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG23PHOPAD-PAD
Cluster 9
Schott Mainz vs M´gladbach Winner
Schott Mainz vs M´gladbach Winner?: Reg Time: M´gladbach
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG23SCMBMG-BMG
Cluster 10
Jeddeloh II vs Heidenheim Winner
Jeddeloh II vs Heidenheim Winner?: Reg Time: Heidenheim
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG23JEDFCH-FCH
Cluster 11
Rhynern vs Dresden Winner
Rhynern vs Dresden Winner?: Reg Time: Dresden
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG23WESSGD-SGD
Cluster 12
Trier vs Leipzig Winner
Trier vs Leipzig Winner?: Reg Time: Trier
KXDFBPOKALGAME-26AUG22TRIRBL-TRI
Analysis
This market represents the odds that Bayer Leverkusen will defeat FC Bayern Munich in an upcoming match. The 5% probability reflects Bayern's historical dominance in German football, suggesting traders assess Leverkusen as a significant underdog. The market is driven by two primary considerations: Bayern's superior squad quality, recent form, and head-to-head record against Leverkusen, which would sustain low odds for the challenger; conversely, Leverkusen's recent competitive improvements and any Bayern injuries or poor form preceding the match could shift probability upward. Resolution depends on the scheduled match result, which will determine whether Leverkusen pulls off a major upset or falls to the favorite as expected.
- ›Bayern Munich's 7+ year pattern of German league dominance and superior individual player quality relative to Leverkusen
- ›Recent head-to-head performance between the clubs in league and cup competitions over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Injury status of key Bayern players (defenders, midfielders, or forwards) in the days immediately before the match
- ›Leverkusen's current win streak or recent performance trajectory relative to their season average
- ›Match context such as competition stage (league vs. cup), location (home/away), and Bayern's remaining fixture load that could affect rotation or intensity
What moved the line
- Aug 10Reg Time: Hannover↑21pp45→66¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Reg Time: Mainz↑13pp4→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Reg Time: Heidenheim↑10pp4→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Reg Time: Frankfurt↑8pp9→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Reg Time: M´gladbach↓8pp41→33¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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