Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.14 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.14 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price implying only 3% probability that DOGE's trimmed mean will touch $0.14 by April 2026, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 61,681% implied yield—a red flag suggesting either severe illiquidity or structural issues.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price implying only 3% probability that DOGE's trimmed mean will touch $0.14 by April 2026, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 61,681% implied yield—a red flag suggesting either severe illiquidity or structural issues. With only $1 in 24-hour volume, $852 open interest, and a 6¢ spread, the market lacks meaningful liquidity and the price likely reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability assessment. The 4,918% realized volatility and 14-day expiration create substantial cliff risk (index of 24), making this an extremely speculative position where the extreme yield may not reflect achievable returns given execution constraints.
Resolution rules
If the price of DOGE after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $0.14, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOGEMAXMON-DOGE-26APR30-014 yes 100