Who will win the next Dominican Republic Senate election?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Who will win the next Dominican Republic Senate election?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2029. This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 196.6% annualized return versus just 5.2% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of People's Force's chances or substantial tail risk priced into the contract.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 196.6% annualized return versus just 5.2% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of People's Force's chances or substantial tail risk priced into the contract. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $144 open interest indicate virtually no trading activity despite the 1141-day time horizon, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable for assessing true market consensus. The recent price recovery from 9¢ to 14¢ over seven days combined with a moderate 6 cliff risk index warrants caution, as this Dominican Republic-specific political outcome may face resolution uncertainty or sparse liquidity when expiration approaches in mid-2029.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Dominican Republic Senate election expected to be held in 2028 at the latest is People's Force, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOMINICANREPUBLICSENATE-28-FP yes 100