Who will win the next Dominican Republic Senate election?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Who will win the next Dominican Republic Senate election?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2029. This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and no open interest, making it effectively non-tradeable despite the extreme 768% implied yield on the Yes side, which reflects the illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and no open interest, making it effectively non-tradeable despite the extreme 768% implied yield on the Yes side, which reflects the illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity. The 9¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the 4¢ price point, and the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant resolution uncertainty given the market's distance from expiry (1,141 days). The neutral regime score combined with zero price movement over seven days indicates this is a dormant market awaiting either significant news about Dominican politics or initial liquidity injection to become viable.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Dominican Republic Senate election expected to be held in 2028 at the latest is Dominican Liberation Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOMINICANREPUBLICSENATE-28-PLD yes 100