Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows classic characteristics of an illiquid, low-probability contract with zero open interest and volume, where the 0¢ price reflects near-zero conviction rather than genuine market assessment.
Analysis
This market shows classic characteristics of an illiquid, low-probability contract with zero open interest and volume, where the 0¢ price reflects near-zero conviction rather than genuine market assessment. The 939.2% implied yield on the Yes side is mathematically extreme but meaningless given the $0 liquidity—any fractional cent movement would produce astronomical yield figures. With 933 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, the market has sufficient time for meaningful price discovery, but the complete absence of trading activity suggests participants view this ticket combination as sufficiently unlikely that it doesn't warrant capital allocation.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic presidential nominee is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez AND the Democratic vice presidential nominee is Mark Kelly in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDTICKET-28NOV07-AOCMKEL yes 100