What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing September 30, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 617% and a massive 247% implied yield, suggesting either significant uncertainty about Progressive's next earnings call messaging or thin liquidity driving outsized pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 617% and a massive 247% implied yield, suggesting either significant uncertainty about Progressive's next earnings call messaging or thin liquidity driving outsized pricing. The price has more than doubled in seven days (24¢ to 47¢), indicating a sharp shift in sentiment toward the "Buyback" outcome, though the 16¢ spread and modest $614 daily volume reflect low liquidity that could amplify price swings further. With 167 days to expiration and a neutral regime, there's ample time for information arrival, but the elevated volatility ratio of 3.49 suggests realized moves are outpacing implied expectations.
Resolution rules
If Buyback is said by any The Progressive Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next The Progressive Corporation earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEARNINGSMENTIONPGR-26APR15-BUYB yes 100