What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing September 30, 2026. This market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $599.41 open interest, making the 41¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $599.41 open interest, making the 41¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The 11¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, and the 302.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either significant mispricing or extreme uncertainty about whether Progressive will mention "Snapshot" during their next earnings call. The sharp 22¢ price decline over seven days (from 64¢ to 42¢) indicates recent bearish sentiment, though with minimal volume this movement may reflect thin-market dynamics rather than genuine conviction.
Resolution rules
If Snapshot is said by any The Progressive Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next The Progressive Corporation earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEARNINGSMENTIONPGR-26APR15-SNAP yes 100