CPI core month-over-month in Sep 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that CPI core month-over-month in Sep 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing October 14, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely precise outcome—exactly 0.5% core CPI month-over-month in September 2026—at just 8¢, implying only an 8% probability despite 181 days to expiry.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely precise outcome—exactly 0.5% core CPI month-over-month in September 2026—at just 8¢, implying only an 8% probability despite 181 days to expiry. The astronomical 2325% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the specificity of the resolution criteria; however, the $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume signal severe illiquidity, making this price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The wide 8¢ spread and elevated cliff risk index (12) further suggest this is a thin, speculative contract where even modest order flow could move the price significantly.
Resolution rules
If the CPI core month-over-month is exactly 0.5% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECONSTATCPICORE-26SEP-T0.5 yes 100