Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 3.60M?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 3.60M?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing May 11, 2026. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a pricing anomaly that suggests no active traders: the 0¢ Yes price implies near-zero probability despite a 147% annualized yield, while the No side offers a nonsensical 15,061% yield.
Analysis
This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a pricing anomaly that suggests no active traders: the 0¢ Yes price implies near-zero probability despite a 147% annualized yield, while the No side offers a nonsensical 15,061% yield. The 8¢ spread and sharp 88¢→91¢ price movement over 7 days indicate stale or erratic pricing rather than genuine market discovery, and with only 25 days to expiration, this market appears abandoned and unreliable for forecasting April 2026 home sales.
Resolution rules
If US existing home sales for April 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 3.60M, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEHSALES-26MAY11-T3.60 yes 100