Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 4.10M?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 4.10M?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing May 11, 2026. The Yes contract has collapsed 58% over seven days to just 9¢, pricing in only a 9% probability that April 2026 existing home sales will exceed 4.10M—suggesting market consensus expects sales to remain subdued near or below recent historical levels.
Analysis
The Yes contract has collapsed 58% over seven days to just 9¢, pricing in only a 9% probability that April 2026 existing home sales will exceed 4.10M—suggesting market consensus expects sales to remain subdued near or below recent historical levels. With zero 24-hour volume and just $166 open interest against a wide 7¢ spread, liquidity is critically thin, making the extreme 28,241% implied yield on Yes contracts largely theoretical and vulnerable to sharp repricing on any meaningful order flow. The market closes in 25 days with a Cliff Risk Index of 19, indicating elevated uncertainty as the April data release approaches, though the dramatic price decline suggests bearish sentiment on housing sales recovery has solidified among active traders.
Resolution rules
If US existing home sales for April 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 4.10M, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEHSALES-26MAY11-T4.10 yes 100