Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (11%) for a moderate executive order outcome, implying the market expects either significantly fewer or substantially more orders than the 350-399 range.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (11%) for a moderate executive order outcome, implying the market expects either significantly fewer or substantially more orders than the 350-399 range. The 325% implied yield on the Yes side is notably asymmetric compared to just 4% on the No side, suggesting strong conviction that this band will be missed rather than uncertainty. With zero 24-hour volume despite $2,159 open interest and a wide cliff risk index of 9, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If the President signs between 350 to 399 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-374 yes 100