Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029
Leader sits at 13% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Between 350 and 399
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Between 400 and 449
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
938 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the President sign
Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Below 300
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-300
Will the President sign more than 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Above 800
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-800
Will the President sign between 700 and 749 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 700 and 749
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-724
Will the President sign between 650 and 699 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 650 and 699
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-674
Will the President sign between 600 and 649 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 600 and 649
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-624
Will the President sign between 550 and 599 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 550 and 599
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-574
Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 500 and 549
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-524
Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 450 and 499
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-474
Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 400 and 449
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-424
Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 350 and 399
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-374
Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 300 and 349
KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-324
Analysis
This market asks whether President Trump will sign between 300 and 349 executive orders during his four-year term from January 2025 through January 2029. The 13% probability reflects skepticism that the final count will land precisely in this range. Trump signed 220 executive orders in his first term (2017-2021), averaging 55 per year. Reaching 300-349 would require approximately 75-87 per year, a notably higher pace. The low probability suggests traders see the actual total likely falling either below 300 or substantially above 349. As the term progresses and quarterly signing patterns emerge, markets will adjust based on whether Trump maintains an elevated executive action cadence or returns to historical norms. The resolution date is January 20, 2029, when the official count becomes definitive.
- ›Trump's first-term average of 220 orders over four years (55/year) would need to increase roughly 35-60% to reach the 300-349 range
- ›Executive order frequency typically correlates with policy priorities and congressional opposition; unified Republican control in early 2025 may affect signing patterns
- ›Historical precedent: Biden signed 140 orders in his first term (35/year), Obama averaged 43/year, suggesting 75-87/year would be exceptionally high
- ›The narrow band (300-349) makes this outcome less likely than broader ranges; most final totals will fall outside this specific window
- ›Quarterly trend data becomes available throughout 2026-2028, allowing markets to recalibrate probability as actual signing pace becomes observable
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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