Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.2%?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 10-cent spread and only 13 days to expiration, suggesting it may be inactive or abandoned.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 10-cent spread and only 13 days to expiration, suggesting it may be inactive or abandoned. The price crashed from 89¢ seven days ago to 0¢ currently, indicating either a significant bearish shift in expectations or a data release that effectively settled the outcome toward "No." The implied yields are nonsensical (341% for Yes, 22,352% for No) due to the 0¢ price, and the high cliff risk index warns of potential resolution complications or market dysfunction near expiry.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 1.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T1.2 yes 100