Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.2%?

Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.2%?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 10-cent spread and only 13 days to expiration, suggesting it may be inactive or abandoned.

██████████████████████████████████████░░
95¢mid
Bid/Ask 90/99¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining
KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T1.2
7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime
90¢90¢ current
Apr 824¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 10-cent spread and only 13 days to expiration, suggesting it may be inactive or abandoned. The price crashed from 89¢ seven days ago to 0¢ currently, indicating either a significant bearish shift in expectations or a data release that effectively settled the outcome toward "No." The implied yields are nonsensical (341% for Yes, 22,352% for No) due to the 0¢ price, and the high cliff risk index warns of potential resolution complications or market dysfunction near expiry.

Resolution rules

If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 1.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 483.4%
IY (No) 39158.4%
Adj IY 19579%
CRI 9
Overround 5.2%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)483.4%
IY (No)39158.4%
Adj IY19579%
CRI9
Overround5.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.568
Spread
9¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:38:52 PM
Observability highEvent type data_release
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T1.2 yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions