Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%
Leader sits at 96% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.0%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above 2.2%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$4
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
21 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.6
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.8%?: Above 2.8%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.8
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.4
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.2
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.0
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Spain's year-over-year GDP growth will exceed 3.6% when first reported for the first quarter of 2026. The relatively high 90% probability suggests confidence that Spain's economy will achieve above-trend growth. The main drivers are Spain's recent economic performance trajectory and labor market strength, which have supported consumer spending and business investment. A key downside factor would be any deterioration in eurozone demand or unexpected inflation that constrains monetary policy. The resolution depends on Spain's official GDP flash estimate for Q1 2026, typically released in late April or early May. The probability structure shows traders increasingly confident about higher growth thresholds, with 96% probability assigned to growth exceeding 2.6%, suggesting the market expects solid but not exceptional performance.
- ›Spain's labor market has shown resilience with declining unemployment, supporting household consumption patterns that typically drive quarterly growth
- ›The probability monotonically decreases at higher thresholds (96% at 2.6%, down to 90% at 3.6%), indicating diminishing confidence about exceeding the 3.6% target
- ›Q1 2026 data will be official government statistics subject to revision, meaning the flash estimate carries inherent measurement uncertainty
- ›Eurozone-wide economic conditions and interest rate policy will influence whether Spain achieves above-3.6% growth given its export dependence
- ›The 3.6% threshold represents roughly 1.5x the recent European average growth rate, making it a notably ambitious target for the region
What moved the line
- May 29Above 2.0%↑3pp92→95¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 1d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 4d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 4d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 4d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.7%last 89% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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