Will there be more than 200000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $221 open interest, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable. The 483.8% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated—a classic sign of thin markets where even small positions create outsized percentage returns. With 322 days to expiration and a wide 9¢ spread, this contract appears underpriced relative to the policy risk, though the lack of trading activity suggests limited conviction from market participants on either side.

Resolution rules

If there are more than 200000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade