Will there be more than 250000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will there be more than 250000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing March 4, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 918% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 918% implied yield on the Yes side. The 7-day downtrend from 14¢ to 11¢ and wide 6¢ spread suggest uncertainty, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional bias. With 322 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 8, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an efficiently-priced contract.
Resolution rules
If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-250000 yes 100