Will there be more than 300000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will there be more than 300000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing March 4, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with only $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 1778% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either deep skepticism about a 300,000-person federal workforce reduction or a mispriced contract due to thin trading. With 322 days to expiry and a wide 4¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient depth for confident position-taking, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional bias in broader conditions.
Resolution rules
If there are more than 300000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-300000 yes 100